Closing Analysis

Indices Edge Ahead After Sharp Afternoon Snapback RSS

Closing Technical Market Analysis for Wed August 3rd 2011

As bad as the stock market was yesterday, that’s how exciting it was today with the indices closing at the highs for the day going away.

The day started out with some very negative action, and although they dipped early on they then snapped back to resistance and looked like they may be starting an early rally, but rolled over quickly to retest. When the retest failed they dove and sharply so. The Nasdaq 100 dropped from 2307 to 2255 or so, and the S&P 500, at that point, dropped from 1257 down to 1235 in a very short period of time of less than an hour. When they reached extreme lows, and the tick got to minus 1411 on the New York Stock Exchange -- after eight days of consecutive down movement -- they finally decided they were going to snap them back. The market rallied sharply, taking the NDX from 2255 to 2299 and the S&P 500 from 1235 to 1252. They backed off and retested, did about a 50% retracement, and then exploded again in equal legs from the first move, taking the NDX from 2277 up to 2312. At that point the S&P 500 jumped from 1240 to 1258, and then another afternoon pullback consolidation ensued. The retest was successful and they moved up in the last hour, backed off, but came on again in the last few minutes to close up on the day.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 29.82 at 11,898.44, nearly 100 points off its low. The S&P 500, jumping from 1234 to 1261, closed up 6.29 at 1260.34, and the Nasdaq 100, rallying from 2250.91 to 2316.73 at one point, closed up 19.92 at 2312.78.

Advance-declines were almost 3 to 2 positive on the New York Stock Exchange and 3 to 2 positive on Nasdaq as well. Up/down volume was a little less than 8 to 5 positive on New York with total volume of 1.3 billion. Nasdaq traded 2.5 billion today and had a 17 to 7 positive ratio. board was mostly narrowly mixed today, except for a few stellar gainers. Among them, InterDigital, Inc. (IDCC) was up 8.75 to 71.96, or 13.8%. Clean Harbors, Inc. (CLH) jumped 5.66 to 57.31, SuccessFactors, Inc. (SFSF) 3.57 to 28.85, Silicon Image, Inc. (SIMG) 1.32 to 6.77, TAAR Surgical Company (STAA) 1.23 to 5.71, and Rex Energy Corporation (REXX) 1.73 to 12.61.

In addition, Cambrex Corporation. (CBM) was up 1.24 to 5.49, or 29%, Nature’s Sunshine Products Inc. (NATR) 3.69 to 19.60, or 23%, and Dynamic Materials Corp. (BOOM) 4.32 to 24.10, or 22%. j2 Global Communications, Inc. (JCOM) rose 4.30 to 30.28, or 17%.

In the large-cap sector, Apple Inc. (AAPL) advanced 3.66 to 392.57, 10 points off its low, a big reversal there. Global Crossing Ltd. (GLBC) jumped from 33.75 to 35.23, and closed at 35.06 up 1.20. LSB Industries Inc. (LXU) snapped back 1.74 to 39.86, and Molycorp, Inc. (MCP) was up 1.27 to 60.00 even. Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO) gained 1.45 to 56.88.

On the downside, the Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) was down 1.19 to 51.75.

Other than that there were no stocks on our board down more than a point, except for VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC) down 1.73 to 27.37 and Inc (YOKU) down 1.77 to 33.26.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, after eight days of a consecutive decline, the indices went sharply lower, climaxed, and then reversed sharply in a 5-wave advance ending near the highs for the day. It was a beautiful, bottoming-type rally today that came up to declining topsline, lateral moving average and price resistance on the Nasdaq 100 and near price resistance on the S&P 500.

We’ll see if there’s a follow-through tomorrow. That will be the key.

Good Trading!


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