Closing Analysis

A Slam Bang Day Today RSS

Closing Technical Market Analysis for Mon May 21st 2012

The stock market indices had a slam-bang day up. But with the oscillators, as oversold as they were going into today, along with the cycle lows and everything else in tune, we expected a strong snapback move as early as today, and we got it.

The day started out with a little pop, a quick pullback that held, and then immediately took off with a very strong rally to mid-morning when they consolidated for about an hour. They came on again mid-day, and ran into a kind of stone wall around 2535 to 2536 area Nasdaq 100, and about 1312 on the S&P 500. They consolidated for about the next 90 minutes, but held support, and then came on again into the close, and closed near the highs going away.

Net of the day, the Dow was up 135.10 at 12,504.48, the S&P 500 was up 20.77 at 1315.98, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 66.90 to 2545.43.

So it was a rather big day on Wall Street today.

Advance-declines were nearly 6 to 1 positive on the New York Stock Exchange, and better than 3 to 2 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 5 1/2 to 1 positive on New York, total volume 775 million. Nasdaq traded over 1.8 billion, and had a 6 to 1 positive volume ratio. board was positive and every stock was up, except Facebook, Inc. (FB), which dropped 4.20 to 34.03, or 11%. Leading the way today, Apple Inc. (AAPL) made a monster move, up 30.90 to 561.28, Google Inc. (GOOG) was up 13.71 to 614.11, and Amazon jumped 4.26 to 218.11.

So you can see why the Nasdaq 100 was up 66.90 today.

Other gainers of note included Pharmacyclics Inc. (PCYC), one of our swing trades, which was up 2.68 to 31.28, or 9.3%, on 1.3 million shares, and also ran as high as 31.31 today. SodaStream International Ltd. (SODA) gained 1.28 to 32.30, SolarWinds, Inc. (SWI) ran 1.89 to 45.94, VIVUS Inc. (VVUS) gained 1.22 to 23.62, and Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) took back 1.78 to 71.74. Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG), one of our favorites, gained 1.08 to 14.90, and Cobalt International Energy, Inc. (CIE) advanced 1.31 to 21.49.

In addition, Affymax, Inc. (AFFY) was up 1.04 to 14.10. Dunkin' Brands Group, Inc. (DNKN) took back 79 cents to 32.20. Goldman Sachs (GS) gained 1.02 to 96.51, and International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) jumped 1.88 to 197.76. These were among the point-plus gainers on our board today.

On the downside, the ultra-shorts got hit hard today. ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) was down 5.52 to 18.56. The VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX ST ETN (TVIX) lost 2.08 to 8.72. Direxion Daily Emrg Mkts Bear 3X Shares (EDZ) gave back 1.33 to 17.36.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices took off in a 5-wave advance, and closed near the highs for the day today, on a beautiful snapback move off of steeply oversold conditions. However, on the hourly chart, they closed underneath the declining, 50-day moving averages and the risky resistance right above it.

We’ll have to see what kind of follow-through they get tomorrow.

Good Trading!


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- Harry Boxer

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