Closing Analysis

Indices Close Well Off Lows

Closing Technical Market Analysis for Wed December 26th 2012

The stock market indices had a very interesting and volatile day. The day started out very quietly. They bounced a little bit, and then rolled over hard, bounced again to resistance, and rolled over hard again in a 3-wave declining movement. They rallied back to resistance, backed off and made higher lows, and then exploded, taking the Nasdaq 100 from 2604 to 2641, and the S&P 500 from 1403 to 1421. At the end of the day in the last five minutes they backed off on testimony by one of the senators, but the indices still came way off the lows, and went positive at one point, but they did pull back.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 18.28 at 13,096.31, 132 points off the low. The S&P 500 was down 1.74 at 1418.09, 17 points of its low. The Nasdaq 100 was down 4.24 at 2632.94, 33 points off its low.

So it was a very big comeback on all the indices and not a bad close.

Advance-declines were negative by about 300 issues on the New York Stock Exchange, and about 330 issues on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 2 to 1 negative on New York, with total volume of 553 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.3 billion and had a less 2 to 1 negative volume ratio. board was mostly narrow, but there were some interesting gainers today. Leading the way was Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) up 48 cents to 3.51, or 16%. Ruckus Wireless, Inc. (RKUS) had a big day, up 2.04 to 21.98, or 10%, and getting as high as 22 today.

Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK) jumped 3.23 to 38.11, or 9%, on 4.5 million shares. Low-priced BPZ Resources, Inc. (BPZ) gained 25 cents to 3.03, or 9%, on 2 million shares.

Other gainers of note included Bon-Ton Stores Inc. (BONT) up 66 cents to 11.47, Nu Skin Enterprises Inc. (NUS) up 1.96 to 35.16, Chemtura Corporation (CHMT) 94 cents to 21.38, Expedia Inc. (EXPE) 2.37 to 60.30, VIVUS Inc. (VVUS) 51 cents to 13.67, Navistar International Corporation (NAV) 81 cents to 21.05, and Tumi Holdings, Inc. (TUMI) 74 cents to 20.87.

On the downside, Google Inc. (GOOG) lost 2.58 to 706.29, but Apple Inc. (AAPL) was up 2.06 to 515.06. Inc. (AMZN) was off just 32 cents to 248.31.

So the large-cap Nasdaq stocks were kind of flat, and so were the indices as well.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices stair-stepped their way in a 3-wave decline by midday, reaching pull-back lows and key support at 2600 NDX and the 1402 zone on the S&P 500. When they bounced and retested successfully, they then had a late short-covering rally that appeared, and a late one at that. The indices did not manage to get back in the plus column, but they were way off the lows.

We’ll see how it goes on tomorrow.

Good Trading!


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- Harry Boxer

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