Closing Analysis

Sloppy Day for the Indices

Closing Technical Market Analysis for Tue December 25th 2012

It’s the day after Christmas, but it was no present for stock market indices. After some early morning, slight strength, the indices rolled over hard and dropped sharply to new pullback lows, the Nasdaq 100 dropping from 2663 to 2627, and the S&P 500 from 1429 1/2 to 1416 1/2. At that point, they stair-stepped their way higher, but rolled over in the last hour to take back some of the potential-snapback gains after a 50% retracement failed.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 25.03 at 13,114.0. The S&P 500 was down 6.83 at 1419.83. The Nasdaq 100 was down 20.87 at 2637.18.

Advance-declines were 2 to 1 negative on the New York Stock Exchange, and 2 to 1 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 5 to 4 negative on New York, with total volume of 450 million shares. Nasdaq traded just over 1 billion and had a 2 to 1 negative volume ratio. board was led down by Inc. (AMZN), down 9.99 to 248.63. Apple Inc. (AAPL) fell 7.17 to 513.00, and Google Inc. (GOOG) gave back just a small fraction, 63 cents to 708.87. The market generals were weak in general today.

Other gainers of note on the downside included Pharmacyclics Inc. (PCYC), down 1.79 to 58.42, and Onyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ONXX), down 1.37 to 76.74.

On the plus side, some of our swing trades did well. Research In Motion Limited (RIMM) jumped 1.22 to 11.83, or 11 1/2%, on 70.6 million shares. SodaStream International Ltd. (SODA) was up 1.40 to 44.57, First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) up 37 cents to 30.63, Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) 44 cents to 18.32, and Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) 48 cents to 25.73.

There were some percent gainers on our board as well. Daqo New Energy Corp. (DQ) popped 1.25 to 8.15, or 18%. Low-priced Lucas Energy, Inc. (LEI) gained 30 cents to 1.45, or 26%. AVEO Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AVEO) advanced 67 cents to 7.99, or 10%, on 1.2 million shares and trading as high as 8.40 earlier in the day.

ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Fut ETF (UVXY), which we traded today, jumped 2.51 to 25.07, or 11%, on nearly 6.8 million shares.

Kronos Worldwide Inc. (KRO) was up 94 cents to 18.47, Universal Display Corp. (PANL) up 78 cents to 25.31, American Vanguard Corp. (AVD) 75 cents to 31.24, Ruckus Wireless, Inc. (RKUS) 1.04 to 19.94, and Polypore International Inc. (PPO) 1.27 to 46.44.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were a little firm at the opening, and then rolled over hard all morning until just before the noon hour when they bounced and moved up. After an up-channel, they rolled over near a 50% retrace level and pulled back into the close to have a sloppy day for the indices, indeed.

We’ll see how it goes tomorrow, but it wasn’t a good day today as key trend lines, especially on the S&P 500, were cracked.

Good Trading!


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- Harry Boxer

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