Closing Analysis

Choppy Session But Higher

Closing Technical Market Analysis for Fri August 31st 2012

The stock market indices had a volatile low-volume day. They swung wildly in the morning, first gapping up, pulling back after Mr. Bernanke’s comments, and then running sharply after economic news. The day was spent whipping back and forth in the morning, and then midday, they pulled back in a 3-wave decline that brought them back to test support. That was successful. They then bounced early afternoon, backed off to retest, came on near the close, but in the last 3 minutes, they backed off again to pare back the gains.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 90.13 at 13,090.84, 61 points off its high. The S&P 500 was up 7.09 at 1406.57, and closed mid-range today. The Nasdaq 100 was up 18.50 at 2772.24, 13 points off its high.

Advance-declines were a little less than 3 to 1 positive on the New York Stock Exchange, and 3 to 2 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 3 to 1+ positive on New York, with total volume of over 725 million shares, and it came on again at the close. Nasdaq traded over 1 1/3 billion, and had an 8 to 5 positive volume ratio.

It was generally a positive day. All of the indices closed positive to close out the week after key test of support this morning. board was mostly higher. The Nasdaq 100 was fueled by advances, although small ones, in Apple, Google, Amazon, etc.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) gained 1.37 to 665.24, 3 points off the high, Inc. (AMZN) was up 2.05 to 248.27, about a point off the high, and Google Inc. (GOOG) jumped 3.41 to 685.09, about 3 1/2 points off its high.

Other large-cap stocks of note included International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), up 1.48 to 194.85, and Goldman Sachs (GS) up 1.00 to 105.72.

We had quite a few large point-plus percentage gainers. Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc. (IMH), a thinly traded stock, jumped 1.49 to 6.75, or 28%. Low-priced Emmis Communications Corp. (EMMS), in a strong afternoon run, gained 50 cents to 2.50, or 24%, on 1.6 million shares. Saba Software, Inc. (SABA) was up 1.42 to 9.40, or 18%.

Silver and Gold stocks were sharply higher as were their ETF’s. The VelocityShares 3x Long Silver ETN (USLV) gained 4.01 to 32.46, or 14%, on 1.9 million shares. The Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shrs (NUGT) was up 1.42 to 12.90, or 12%, on 6.3 million shares. Junior favorite silver stock, Endeavour Silver Corp. (EXK) was up 77 cents to 8.89, or 91/2%, on 1.7 million shares. ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) jumped 4.31 to 50.04, or 9 1/2%, on 3.5 million shares.

Esterline Technologies Corp. (ESL), after strong earnings, gained 6.86 to 59.80, or 13%, on 1.1 million shares. Splunk, Inc. (SPLK) exploded for 3.90 to 34.44, or 13%, on 3.4 million shares. Zale Corporation (ZLC) continues its recent run up, up 49 cents to 5.52, gaining nearly 10%, on 2.5 million shares. Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT) gained 1.42 to 15.82, and traded as high as 16.32 earlier in the day, or 10%, on 3.3 million shares.

AM Castle & Co. (CAS) advanced 1.11 to 13.03, and Medivation, Inc. (MDVN) exploded for 7.44 to 104.86.

On the downside, Facebook, Inc. (FB) closed near the all-time low at 18.06, down 1.03, just 3 cents off its low, and traded a whopping 58.3 million shares today.

The ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) got creamed for 4.90 to 48.85.

Those were the only 2 stocks that were down on our board today.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices gapped up, then came down sharply, reversed just as sharply, if not more so, to reach new session highs, but failed at near resistance. They backed and filled in a wedge pattern only to breakout late in the day, and then pulled back into the close. It was a choppy session, but higher, and a nice way to close the week for a holiday weekend.

Have a nice Labor Day weekend, and we'll see you on Monday.

Good Trading!


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- Harry Boxer

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