Closing Analysis

Will There Be A Turn-Around Next Week?

Closing Technical Market Analysis for Fri May 18th 2012

The week closed out on a negative note again, and it was very ugly as the selling continued, and each rally was interrupted with more selling and more new lows.

The day started out with a move down, and then a very sharp rally ensued. It looked like they might snap it back, but they failed at the declining tops line and moving averages, and rolled over even more sharply. That resulted in a mid-day, very sharp snap-back rally, taking the Nasdaq 100 from 2485 to 2515, which was 30 points within a short period of time. The S&P 500 jumped from 1298 up to 1307. They then rolled over into the rest of the day and closed down near the session lows. Only in the last 5 minutes did they snap back, preventing a close at the lows.

Net of the day, the Dow closed down 73.11 at 12,369.38 the S&P 500 was down 9.64 at 1295.22, 3 1/2 points off the low, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 30.52 at 2478.53, 4 points off its low.

Advance-declines were worse than 3 to 1 negative on the New York Stock Exchange, and about 2 1/2 to 1 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 2 1/2 to 1 negative on New York, with total volume at a hefty 1.13 billion. Nasdaq traded a very heavy 2.6 billion, and had a 5 to 3 negative volume ratio. board was pretty negative today. Apple Inc. (AAPL), however, did manage to gain 26 cents after reaching down to 522.18 and closed at 530.38. Google Inc. (GOOG) dipped under 600 to 596.70, and closed at 600.40, but it was still down 22.65. That really hurt the Nasdaq-100 today. Inc. (AMZN) was also down 4.51 to 213.85. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) lost 2.01 to 195.88. Goldman Sachs (GS) was down 1.59 to 95.49.

There were some gainers on our board today. Facebook, Inc. (FB) went public today. It closed up 23 cents after being up as much as 7.00 earlier in the day, and closed at 38.23, on more than 571 million shares on its debut day.

In addition, low-price Rosetta Genomics, Ltd. (ROSG), which we traded today, was up 1.55 to 5.50, or 39%, on 1.8 million shares. Big day for that stock.

The ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) jumped 2.76 to 24.08, trading as high as 24.87 just a few minutes before the close. The VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX ST ETN (TVIX) climbed up 1.27 to 10.80, up as highs as 11.18 earlier.

Other gainers of note included Brown Shoe Co. Inc. (BWS), which we also traded today, up 2.23 to 10.99, or 25%, on 3.4 million shares. Velti Plc (VELT) gained 85 cents to 6.76, or 14%, on 5.7 million shares. Millennial Media Inc. (MM) advanced 1.19 to 13.63, or nearly 10%, on 1.1 million shares. Foot Locker, Inc. (FL) gained 2.32 to 30.33, or 8%, on 8.5 million shares. Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) snapped back 81 cents to 14.36, or 6%, on 38.5 million shares.

Titan Machinery, Inc. (TITN) ran up 1.67 to 30.54, and Finish Line Inc. (FINL) gained 1.01 to 21.25. These were among the point gainers on our board today.

On the downside, the ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) got slammed for 3.03 to 64.94. The Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares (TNA) was down 1.28 to 45.00 even. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) lost 2.66 to 74.87.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices had a 5-wave decline today and closed near the session lows going away. Now we’re at the multi-week lows as well, with extreme readings on the oscillators.

Today was Option Expiration Day, so we expected it to have a sloppy, lousy close, but I think we may see a turn-around early next week.

Good Trading!


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