Closing Analysis

Market in Dire Straits, as Key Support Broken

Closing Technical Market Analysis for Wed November 16th 2011

The stock market indices suffered another nasty spill. Only an afternoon consolidation and late comeback prevented them from closing at the session lows.

The day started out with a sharp move lower, and then a bounce back and the formulation of a bear flag consolidation pattern. They rolled over hard into midday when they reached their session lows on the Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 made lower lows later on today, but held around the 1210 area, and the NDX held around 2258. They rallied back into the close.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 134.79 at 11,770.73, about 94 points off the low. The S&P 500 lost 20.78 to 1216.13, about 7 points off its low, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 52.28 at 2272.09.

Advance-declines were 4 to 1 negative on the New York Stock Exchange, and 2 1/2 to 1 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was about 12 or 13 to 1 negative on New York, with total volume of about 900 million shares traded today. Nasdaq traded 2.15 billion shares and had a 17 to 4 negative volume ratio. had a lot of stocks to the downside, but there were a few gainers. Leading the way on the downside, Apple Inc. (AAPL) dropped 7.36 to 377.41, Goldman Sachs (GS) 3.25 to 92.35, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) 4.72 to 76.46, and Inc (YOKU) 3.31 to 17.24.

Other losers of note included Aruba Networks, Inc. (ARUN) down 2.35 to 21.79, and Inc. (STMP) off 2.33 to 27.39.

The Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) fell 3.75 to 57.60, and the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares (TNA) lost 2.01 to 42.71.

On the plus side, the ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) did very well, up 1.59 to 13.40. The VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX ST ETN (TVIX) advanced 5.18 to 62.31, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) 2.66 to 47.07, Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (TZA) 1.28 to 31.78, Direxion Daily Large Cap Bear 3X Shares (BGZ) 1.60 to 34.05, Direxion Daily Emrg Mkts Bear 3X Shares (EDZ) 1.66 to 21.65, and iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) 2.15 to 48.44.

The Children’s Place Retail Stores, Inc. (PLCE) had a stellar day today on solid earnings, up 6.81 to 51.81. Fusion-io Inc. (FIO) jumped 1.49 to 40.34, and, Inc. (NTES) 1.88 to 47.58.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices again started off the day on a down note, then consolidated mid-morning, and rolled over after a consolidation proved to be bear formations. They rolled over very hard into the lunch hour at which point they reached near the session lows. They bounced around for the next several hours, but could not rally back other than a late 5 or 10 minute snapback that prevented them from closing at the lows for the day on the S&P 500 anyway.

It was a very nasty day and today’s action broke key support levels on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, and we are in dire straits technically.

Good Trading!


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- Harry Boxer

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