Closing Analysis

Indices Continue Lower, but Close Firmly Off Lows

Closing Technical Market Analysis for Fri July 2nd 2010

The stock market indices were lower on Thursday, but came dramatically off the early sharp lows. The day started out with a little bit of a slight bump to the upside before the indices rolled over hard and fast. The Nasdaq 100 dropped from 1747 to 1700, and the S&P 500 from 1034 to nearly 1010. At that point they were severely oversold, not only intraday but over the last few days, with a negative tick of 1414, which triggered a snapback rally.

A sharp 3-wave rally ensued that took the indices back up towards 1738 NDX and 1028 SPX. For the rest of the day, though, they chopped violently back and forth in a wide trading range, but firmed up into the close. Despite the positive action off the lows, they still ended up in the negative column.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 41.19 for the day at 9732.53; however, that was about 111 points of its low. The S&P 500 was down 3.34 at 1027.37, about 17 points off its low, and the Nasdaq 100 down 4.73 at 1734.41, more than 34 points off its low.

Advance/declines were about 3 to 2 negative on the New York Stock Exchange and almost 2 to 1 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was similar. board, as a result, was mixed, and, surprisingly, several of the stocks we follow closed on the upside. Leading the way was IDT Corporation (IDT), up 1.79 at 14.54 on 2.4 million shares. Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) gained 1.01 at 109.66, Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL) 1.14 at 18.42, and Inc. (AMZN) 1.70 at 110.96.

Those were the only point-plus gainers on the board.

Among other gainers of note, Acme Packet, Inc. (APKT) jumped 81 cents at 27.69, and Cree Inc. (CREE) 68 cents at 60.71, more than 3 points off its low at the close. New portfolio position OmniVision Technologies Inc. (OVTI) advanced 40 cents at 21.84.

Other than that there were just small fractional gainers across the board.

On the downside, Apple Inc. (AAPL) lost 3.05 at 248.48, but that was 5.00 of its low. Dendreon Corp. (DNDN) gave back 2.20 at 30.13, more than 2 points off its low on a big snapback rally today. It had been below 26 in pre-market trading.

Google Inc. (GOOG) lost 5.46 at 439.49, but snapped back 6 points from its low of 433.63. New IPO Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA), which had soared past 30 yesterday, closed down 1.87 at 21.96, a big negative reversal since mid-day yesterday. Xyratex Ltd. (XRTX), after earnings, dropped 1.74 at 12.41.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices dropped sharply at the opening to new multi-session pullback lows, but reached severely oversold conditions and staged a sharp rally that lasted most of the rest of the session. Despite the indices rallying back, they still managed to close in the negative column and below their trend lines and moving averages, as the downtrend continues.

Good Trading!


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- Harry Boxer

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