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Closing Technical Market Comments for Mon Aug 04, 2008RSS Feed

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Down and Dirty to Start the Week
By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com)

The market was down and dirty to start the week, but it looked even worse beneath the surface. Despite the fact that the indices weren't down too terribly, individual stocks looked a lot worse, and it felt like the indices were down a lot steeper.

The day started out with a move down. They drifted lower all morning, rallied late morning, failed to breakout above key intraday resistance, then backed off but retested successfully and then came on again to take out the rally highs on the S&P 500, moving right up to the opening levels near 1260. At that point the NDX failed to confirm, and they rolled over in the last hour quite sharply.

Net on the day the Dow was down 42.17, the S&P 500 down 11.29, and the Nasdaq 100 21.72. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) managed to gain 1.52 today and tried to lead the market up earlier, but faded during the pullback.

The technicals were negative & certainly confirmed the lower index prices. Advance-declines were 2 to 1 negative on New York and a similar amount on Nasdaq. Up/down was about 2 to 1 negative on New York on total volume of a light 1.2 billion. Nasdaq traded just under 1.9 billion and had a ratio of 2 1/2 to 1 negative on advancing over declining volume.

TheTechTrader.com board was nearly all negative, and many stocks were down multiple points. Leading the way were the shippers, which got hammered today. DryShips (DRYS) fell 6.77 to 66.78, Excel Maritime (EXM) down 4.81 to 29.31, and TBS International (TBSI) down 3.40 to 32.12.

Solar energy stocks did not fare much better, with Canadian Solar (CSIQ) down 1.64. Among our portfolio positions, A-Power Energy (APWR) got hammered for 2.43, closing at 22.10, very close to our stop. Acordia Pharmaceuticals (ACOR) got slammed for 2.40 at 31.48. Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) lost 3.76, to 64.65.

Among other stocks, Mercadolibre (MELI) was down 3.20 to 32.64. Recent Chart of the Week ChinaVision (VISN) at 19.50 was down 2.88 on news of a secondary. Chinese steel company General Steel (GSI) fell 1.73 to 13.77. Chindex (CHDX) gave back 1.17, and Aerovironment (AVAV) lost 1.21 today.

In addition, the USO oil ETF got slammed under 100, closing at 97.61, down 3.43. As a result the DUG inverse oil & gas ETF had a terrific session, up 3.17 to 38.65 on 31.6 million shares.

On the plus side, there was nothing speak of other than the QID (short QQQQ) and SDS (short SPY), which were up today 1.01 and 1.21, respectively, with the indices down.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices fell early, steadied during mid-day but couldn’t break out, and then rolled over into the close, closing not far off the session lows. So, it was negative way to start the week, and certainly with the indices closing under their 4-week trendlines this does not augur well for the next few days. They could conceivably come down and test the July lows very easily.

Good trading!

Harry

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