Indices End Positively, Though Bear-Flag Formations Portend More Downside
By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (
www.thetechtrader.com)
The markets had a very unusual day today. With most of the momentum stock groups getting hammered, the indices still managed to close up on the day, but it was basically back and forth action for most of the session, as they started out with a pop to the upside, got a quick pullback, and then had a strong rally that took them to the session highs early in the morning. They backed off in a 3-wave decline that held the lows, and came on again mid-day, but failed to take out the highs and then again backed off in a 3-wave decline , which retested the lows once again. The overall patterns that formed today appear to be bear flag/consolidation-type formations, and there appears to be more room to the downside. We've now had 4 waves down off the highs, and could easily get a fifth wave before a more substantial move back up occurs.
After all of that, the Dow still managed to close up 24.43, the S&P 500 up 3.74, and the Nasdaq 100 up 8.12. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was up 2.91, a the positive session for most of the indices I follow.
The technicals managed to close in the plus column, as were 310 issues higher on New York but almost 3 to 2 higher, or about 600 issues , on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was barely ahead 6 to 5 on New York, with total volume under 1.2 billion. Nasdaq, however, had a much better plurality of more than 2 to 1 positive, and traded about 1.87 billion.
However, TheTechTrader.com board was mostly lower, and there were some very big losers. Momentum junior oils got hammered today. MXC dropped 15.40 closing at 34, and PDO, which had also run up sharply and actually touched new all-time this morning at 29.88, closed at 19.95, more than 10 points off the high, down 7.15 on the day .
Shippers had a particularly difficult session, with DryShips (DRYS) down 10.23 to 92.13, TBS International (TBSI) dropping 4.86 to 47.49, and Excel Maritime (EXM) dropping 2.60 at 50.50, although that was nearly 3 points lower mid-afternoon before it rallied back.
Solar energy stocks, particularly the junior solars, also had a difficult session. Canadian Solar (CSIQ) at 37.90 was down 5.89. Solarfun (SOLF) at 20.65 was down 5.85. That was over 29 just yesterday morning.
Chinese stocks generally were weaker. China Architectural (RCH) fell 1.09, China Precision Steel (CPSL) down 84 cents, China Natural Resources (CHNR) 1.83, and China Finance Online (JRJC) down 1.18, just a few examples.
A few stocks were up, including Evergreen Solar (ESLR), which announced a $1 billion-plus contract and jumped 1.82, although it traded about 1.20 higher than that early in the session, on 47 1/2 million shares. Recently added portfolio position DUG, the ultra short oil and gas ETF, was up 56 cents today on the drop in oil from over $135 pre-market to down near $130, and closing near $130 3/4.
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices rallied in the morning, went back and forth in four separate legs but managed to close up on the day. However, the consolidation was very similar to what we saw earlier in the week, and with this consolidation phase being the potential fourth wave of the downtrend we may be due for a fifth and final leg before we see a better snapback rally.
In any case, right now the trend is lower and we're not far from key support levels, so this is an area that absolutely needs to hold or we could see much lower levels over the near term.
Good trading!
Harry
