Extreme Volatility to Start the New Year
By Harry Boxer, TheTechTrader.com (www.thetechtrader.com)
It was an extremely volatile session today to start the year, with the indices ending mixed at the end of the day, but the road traveled was a wild and wooly one.
The day started out with a strong gap up on very strong pre opening futures. They backed and filled for a bit, then rallied strongly in the morning, reaching the session highs about an hour after the market opened. They spent the rest of the morning pulling back and during the lunch hour they accelerated to the downside. In the afternoon, after the FOMC minutes were disclosed ,traders obviously didn't like what they heard, and the indices accelerated sharply to the downside, with the NDX dropping from a morning high of 1793 to a mid-afternoon low of 1731, or a 62-point drop in just a few hours. The S&P 500 dropped from 1429 to 1408, 21 points. With an hour to go they started to rally. They snapped back with some authority late in the session, and took back a chunk of the losses, leaving the indices near the flat line and the picture very cloudy.
The indices closed right at key overhead resistance from last week's lows. Net on the day, the Dow was up 11, the S&P 500 down 1.70, and the Nasdaq 100 up about 2 ,. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) fell 2.86. So it was a very mixed picture indeed.
To confirm that, the advance-declines on New York were 17 to 16 positive, and 10 to 9 negative on declining volume over advancing volume. Nasdaq was a bit different. Even though advance-declines were just 16 to 15 positive, up/down volume was nearly 2 to 1 positive on very heavy volume of more than 2 1/3 billion traded today.
TheTechtrader.com board was extremely strong in the morning and gave back a bunch of it in the afternoon. There were several stocks up more than a point today. Among our portfolio positions, Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) was up 1.53, and Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN) up 1.46. Among other Chinese stocks, China Precision Steel (CPSL) was up another 2.70 today, and China Natural Resources (CHNR) up 1.74. They were among the leaders. Fuel Tech (FTEK), one of our old favorites, was up 1.11 today, in an impressive showing.
Other stocks of note on the plus side, Chinese biotech American Oriental Bioengineering (AOB) was up 45 cents, and portfolio position Simpletech (STEC) up 24 cents.
On the downside, my board showed no point-plus losers, but a few were close. Global Sources (GSOL) dropped 94 cents, China GrenTech (GRRF) 93 cents, and Fuwei Films (FFHL) gave back 90 cents from last week's profits. Chindex (CHDX) lost 43 cents, NeoMagic (NMGC) 30 cents and Lumera (LMRA) 35 cents today.
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices plunged below key support, and took out last week's lows on the Nasdaq 100 and slightly so on the S&P 500, before a late rally brought them back strongly.
So, the indices are near resistance, and the picture remains cloudy, with the Nasdaq 100 looking more negative than the S&P 500 right now.
We'll see which way they follow-through tomorrow.
Good trading!
Harry
