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Closing Technical Market Analysis for Sun August 16th 2009 RSS

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Sun August 16th 2009
Late Short Covering Stems Losses in Down Session
by Harry Boxer, www.TheTechTrader.com

The stock market indices ended the week on a down note, although in the last half hour they snapped back and took back about half their losses.  Still, it was a very steep slide in the morning, a mid-day stabilization that lasted a half hour, and then what appeared to be late short covering.

Net on the day, the indices closed down 76.79 on the Dow at 9321.40, S&P 500 down 8.64 at 1004 and change, Nasdaq 100 down 17.07 at 1611.50.

The volume was rather the light on Friday. Total volume on the NYSE was just over a billion shares, and the Nasdaq 100 was a little heavier at 1.9 billion.  Advance-declines were 21 to 8 negative on New York and 21 to 6 negative on Nasdaq.   Up/down volume was worse than 4 to 1 negative on New York and nearly 4 to 1 negative on Nasdaq as well.

As a result of the weak day most of the stock on TheTechTrader.com board were lower, but there weren’t many multiple point losers.  On the downside Goldman Sachs (GS) fell 1.75 to 162.73, as financials were mostly lower, although Bank of America (BAC) was up 39 cents today, rallying 80 cents from its low.

JP Morgan (JPM) lost 45 cents to 42.45, Morgan Stanley (MS) 9 cents at 29.79, and Wells Fargo (WFC) 15 cents to 27.73.  However, all these financials were substantially off their lows by the end of the day.

Other stocks of note on the downside, Potash (POT) at 95.75 was down 1.80, and Mosaic (MOS) gave back 58 cents to 54.07.

Among ETFs, the Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) lost 1.34 to 73.61 and the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO) was down 1.77 to 36.03 as oil gave it back today.  iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ) fell 1.07 to 59.80, and the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI) went down 74 cents to 41.04.

Other losers of note were China Green Agriculture (CGA), which gave back 82 cents at 13.77, and American International Group, Inc. (AIG), down 55 cents to 24.37, also in the financial sector.

Canadian Solar (CSIQ) gave back 39 cents at 16.54, but Yingli Green Energy (YGE) was up 15 cents at 12.43.

On the plus side, China GrenTech Corp (GRRF) at 5.97 was up 1.91, a huge percentage gain on nearly 5 million shares today.

Fractional gainers included BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) at 10.10 up 44 cents, and Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) at 6.22 up 11 cents, both model portfolio positions of ours. Radian Group Inc. (RDN) at 7.45 was up 38 cents today.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were down sharply from the opening.  The steep loss was reversed at mid-day, and the indices then treaded water, moving slightly higher in what looked like bear flags.  But when they couldn’t roll over, some apparent short covering near the end of the session spiked the market back up and took back half the losses.

However, the overall patterns, particularly on the S&P 500, are beginning to look toppy, although until we get downside breakage of key support around the 990-92 area on the S&P, around 1580-85 zone on the Nasdaq 100 the question is still in doubt as to the direction.

Good trading!

Harry

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