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Closing Technical Market Analysis for Mon May 14th 2012
The stock market indices opened with big gaps to the downside as European and foreign markets were weak on the Greek situation. They made lower lows early on in the first half hour, and then snapped back in a 3-wave advance only to back off mid-day. When that retest seemed to be successful, they came on and made nominal new highs, but when they couldn’t follow through, and failed at declining topsline, they rolled over and sold off the rest of the afternoon to give back all of the rally, basically, to close near the session lows on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500.
Net of the day, the Dow was down 125.10 at 12,695.50, the S&P 500 down 15.04 at 1338.35, less than 2 points off the low, and the Nasdaq 100 up 25.70 at 2590.28, less than 3 points off its low.
Advance-declines were worse that 5 to 1 negative on the New York Stock Exchange, and worse than 3 to 1 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was nearly 7 to 1 negative on New York, total volume 765 million. Nasdaq traded 1.62 billion, and had a 3 to 1 negative volume ratio. Technicals were quite negative, but not as extreme as we’ve seen. That may mean that we need to go lower. Closing off the lows, not far off key short-term support could mean much lower levels, and that the S&P 500 has actually cracked here. As of this morning, the NDX hasn’t confirmed yet, but if we get a confirmation tomorrow morning, particularly at the opening, I think we’re going to go sharply lower still, despite the oversold conditions, perhaps.
TheTechTrader.com board was mostly lower, however the ultra-shorts did very well today. There were other gainers as well. They included Groupon, Inc. (GRPN), up 1.86 to 11.76, or 19%, on 14.2 million shares in anticipation of earnings tonight, and the Facebook IPO. Ventrus Biosciences Inc. (VTUS) was up 1.62 to 12.58, or 15%, on 2 million shares. Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. (KERX) jumped 27 cents to 2.16, or 14%, on 11.88 million shares. Synacor, Inc. (SYNC) gained 1.30 to 10.54, or 14%, on 1.6 million shares. Agenus Inc. (AGEN) gained 59 cents to 6.32, or 10%.
In addition, BMC Software Inc. (BMC) was up 3.52 to 43.92, ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (IMOS) up 1.04 to 13.43, Francesca’s Holdings Corporation (FRAN) 1.58 to 25.61, and low-priced Zynga, Inc. (ZNGA) 47 cents to 7.95.
Medivation, Inc. (MDVN) jumped 4.43 to 87.42. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) snapped back 2.68 to 64.70. Synageva BioPharma Corp. (GEVA) was up 1.40 to 38.29.
The ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) ultra-short led the ultra-shorts today, up 1.73 to 16.56, or 11.6%, on 13.9 million shares. The Direxion Daily Emrg Mkts Bear 3X Shares (EDZ) 1.04 to 16.37, the Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) 1.25 to 24.82, the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shrs (DUST) did fantastic today, up 6.14 to 68.85, and the ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) was up 3.10 to 67.10.
On the downside, Apple Inc. (AAPL) lost 8.49 to 558.22. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) dropped 8.33 to 399.92, closing up 400 for the first time in a while. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) dropped another 1.73 to 199.44, closing up 200. Goldman Sachs (GS) down 2.36 to 99.77, closing up 100.
Cobalt International Energy, Inc. (CIE) was down 1.29 to 22.00 even, Dunkin' Brands Group, Inc. (DNKN) down 1.04 to 32.49, Sourcefire, Inc. (FIRE) 1.56 to 51.75, VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC) 1.04 to 29.96, and Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) 1.15 to 16.25.
Some of the recent momentum stocks got hit hard today. Be very careful about that. This market is volatile, and potentially sharply lower.
Let’s see how it goes tomorrow.
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