Charts of the Week, Monday February 26th, 2007
Charts of the Week are stocks that appear to be attractive candidates for short- to intermediate-term (2-6 weeks) returns based on analysis of their daily or weekly chart formations and underlying technicals. Support levels may be used as possible stops.
Analysis: ONXX: We recently added this to our model portfolio, and one look of the chart shows this obviously is not for the faint of heart The stock had a tremendous breakaway gap on high volume on positive news on its cancer drug, followed by a short consolidation and secondary high on heavy volume as well. Currently in a mini-flag formation, the stock looks much higher potentially, despite the fact that it has more than doubled just in the last couple weeks. But the price-volume surge was an impressive one, and the fact that it didn't pull back much at all indicates potentially higher prices. My trading targets are 32, 38 and 45. Very short-term support is at around 27, with secondary support in the 23.80 area.
Analysis: HOKU: A bullish base formed in HOKU, followed by a tremendous high-volume price surge with a big breakaway gap. Despite the pullback of the last 4 weeks or so, support at the August highs held, and the volume and technical patterns indicate potentially higher prices. Last week the stock attempted to break out and appears to be bubbling under, so to speak. With resistance in the 5.80 area, a move above that and then a takeout of the 6.10 area should trigger a test of the 7 , January spike highs. That level would be my initial target, with secondary target up around 10, and longer-term target up around 13-13 ,.. Short-term support is at the January pullback lows at around the 4.90 area.
Analysis: REFR: We highlighted this a couple weeks ago, and as we indicated it had a big move and we were looking for a pullback. It certainly got that, as over the last two weeks the stock has backed and filled in a pennant-type, wedge formation that has come on low volume. The stock acts very bullishly during this pattern, and I'm expecting higher prices, and would be a buyer at the current levels or on any further pullback. 21-day moving average exists at the 9 , area, but it may not be reached. The stock looks like it can reach much higher levels, with targets at 15, 19 and 25 short-, intermediate-, and longer-term. Current short-term support exists at the 9
Analysis: PBW: Last week we noticed a surge in some of the solar energy stocks, including previously mentioned HOKU. Rather than pick out one or two others from that group, we decided to take a look at the ETF for the group -- the PowerShares Winderhill Clean Energy Portfolio ETF. That chart pattern shows a 6-7 month base pattern whose resistance was broken last week on a surge in technicals, including On-Balance Volume, which was impressive. The stock closed right at secondary resistance near 19
Analysis: AHM: (SHORT): After a multi-year advance that saw it move from the low-to-mid single digits at the end of 2000 to over 40
Analysis: CAL: (SHORT): The stock saw a multi-year run from its lows in 2002, but more importantly the big move began in the fall of 2005 that saw the stock go from about the 9 level to nearly 52 by January of this year. Over the last few months the stock appears to be forming a head-and-shoulders topping formation, with neckline support in the 40-40 , area. This is one to watch for a downside break. It has not broken its pattern yet, but is one worth watching for a potential short, with downside targets of 30, 22 and 16 short-, intermediate- and long-term potentially. Resistance currently is at recent highs around the 46 area, and beyond that at the January multi-year highs in the 52 range.
Analysis: NDE: (SHORT): A very long multi-year rising channel appears to have been broken last week on extremely heavy volume. The prior week saw a break of the 3-year trendline, and technicals have deteriorated very rapidly. This also augurs well for future downside in prices, although because of the 12-point sell-off over the last 3 months the stock could snapback to test resistance, currently in the 37-39 zone, which would be ideal for initiating shorts. Short-term target is 30, intermediate-term target 26 and long-term 20. Resistance as indicated is up around the 39 zone.
Analysis: BMC: (SHORT): This was on our Fab 50 list for a while because of the sharp run it had in June from under 20 to around 37 recently. It saw a very sharp break two weeks ago, followed by a definitive bear-flag type formation currently forming. With overhead resistance around 33-33 ,, any break below the recent downside move below, say 30
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